Data Desk · v2026-08-08

The Take-Two data desk

The numbers behind the launch, from public filings, records bodies, and named analysts — with the line this desk never blurs: company guidance is official; analyst forecasts are estimates. Every row links its source. Reuse the data: download the CSV (CC BY 4.0, attribution neonpulsehq.com).

Franchise unit milestones Reported figures

The 2013 launch records Certified

RecordFigureSource
GTA 5 day-one retail sales (2013) $815.7M Guinness World Records ↗
Fastest entertainment property to $1B (3 days, 2013) $1B / 3 days Guinness World Records ↗

Company guidance Official

$B8–B8.2

FY2027 net-bookings guidance · stated 2026-08-07 · Take-Two Interactive (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1) ↗

First issued with Take-Two's FY2026 results in May 2026, named by the company as driven by the November 19 launch, and reiterated at Q1 FY2027 results on August 7, 2026 — net bookings only. The same outlook update lowered non-GAAP EBITDA guidance to $993–1,053M from $1,013–1,070M and raised capital expenditure to about $290M from about $200M, so "guidance held" is true of this range and not of the outlook around it. The next revision point is the Q2 FY2027 report, which Take-Two has not yet dated.

Analyst forecasts Estimates — not company figures

AnalystMetricForecastSource
Piper Sandler GTA 6 units by April 2027 ~35M Yahoo Finance (analyst-note coverage) ↗
DFC Intelligence GTA 6 first-year units / revenue ~40M / $3.2B GameFragger (analyst coverage) ↗
Morningstar GTA 6 units in fiscal 2027 up to 70M Yahoo Finance / Stocktwits ↗

Forecasts differ because methods differ; none of these numbers comes from Take-Two, and Take-Two has published no pre-order or sales count for GTA 6. The viral "39M pre-orders" figure is logged as an unsupported rumor on the fact ledger.

Reproducible calculations

  • GTA 5 launch pace (2013)

    $1,000M ÷ 3 days → ≈ $333M/day across the record window

    Inputs: Guinness-certified $1B-in-3-days record

  • Guidance midpoint

    ($8.0B + $8.2B) ÷ 2 → $8.1B FY2027 net-bookings midpoint

    Inputs: Take-Two FY2027 guidance range

  • Scale check: analyst revenue forecast vs guidance

    $3.2B (DFC first-year GTA 6 revenue) ÷ $8.1B (guidance midpoint) → ≈ 40% — the share of FY27 bookings one analyst forecast would represent

    Inputs: DFC forecast (estimate) + Take-Two guidance (official); shown for scale only

Change log

  • 2026-07-23 — Data desk v1: unit milestones, 2013 launch records, FY27 guidance, three named analyst forecasts, three reproducible calculations. All rows registry-sourced.
  • 2026-08-08 — Guidance note rewritten after Take-Two's Q1 FY2027 results on August 7, 2026. The $8.0–8.2B net-bookings range was reiterated, so no figure or calculation on this page changed; what changed is that the note no longer points at August 7 as a future revision date, and it now records the scope — non-GAAP EBITDA guidance lowered, capital expenditure raised, in the same outlook update. The row's source was also moved forward from the May FY2026 release to the August 7 results release, so the link now reaches the document that states every figure in the note; claims.ts had already made the same move, and the two stores no longer disagree about the best evidence.

Last updated against Take-Two's Q1 FY2027 results of August 7, 2026: the $8.0–8.2 billion net-bookings range was reiterated, while non-GAAP EBITDA guidance came down and capital expenditure went up (the full read of that release). The next company figures arrive with the Q2 FY2027 report, which has no announced date. Deeper context: GTA 5's records · the analyst projections, unpacked · the analyst projections and what they measure against.